John Nieman
As any regular visitor to this space can expect, I eagerly look forward to any World Cup. Particularly when it’s played in a region where the time zones allow us to watch at reasonable hours.
And so I took the time last Friday to watch the World Cup draw on Fox. That was a mistake. The spectacle made me ashamed of my sport and ashamed of my country.
Now we all know that FIFA is a corrupt organization. That’s something that we as soccer fans have learned to accept and move on. There was hope some years ago when officials were arrested and prosecuted that there could be some relief. But when insider Infantino was made the new president we just kind of shrugged it off and went on. The beauty of the game has always outshone the corruption of the organization.
But I just can’t ignore what is going on with Gianni Infantino and Donald Trump. What possible hold does this lame duck president have over the leader of the largest sports organization in the world?
I anticipated The Draw was going to be bad since there was no doubt that this ridiculous peace prize was going to be given to Trump. I was hopeful that it was just going to be presented in a way that made it clear FIFA was just handing him a tribute, so he wouldn’t interfere with international fans coming to the tournament.
But no, that would certainly not do. Between the absurdly fawning video and Infantino’s nose more brown than Pam Bondi could ever aspire, the event unfortunately exceeded all expectations.
Of course, all of that diverted attention from the fact that they refused to find a Mexican athlete to participate in the draw and Wayne Gretzky showed up apparently drunk.
To my mind, the only person on the stage who exhibited the needed class and respect for the occasion was Shaquille O’Neal. Who would have thought?
And, of course, the show ended with the Village People performing YMCA.
What in the name of all that is holy did Trump threaten in order to receive this massive stroke to his ego?
The overall tepid reception from the assembled audience was the only glimmer of hope I could find.
From the perspective of the show organizers, the draw–the reason a billion people were watching—was just a side issue. But let’s discuss.
Let’s get the details out of the way. The tournament is divided into twelve groups of four. The nations in each group will play each other once. The top two teams in each group will advance along with the eight most successful third place teams. There are many other factors, but the most important is that the four top-rated teams, Spain, France, England and Argentina, cannot meet until the semifinals.
And there are six teams yet to be determined, who will participate in playoffs in March. These playoff teams include Italy, Turkiye and other countries that can certainly compete and so it is probably still early for real prognostication.
But some observations can be made.
Because of the expansion to 48 teams, there doesn’t seem to be a real Group of Death. Norway was the Pot 3 team no one wanted to draw. They ended up in Group I with France, Senegal, and a playoff team, so that may be the closest thing to a Group of Death.
Canada got a bit of a sting when Gretzky pulled out the ball containing the playoff group which includes Italy, but the other teams in their group are Qatar and Switzerland.
Some have said Group L—England, Croatia, Ghana and Panama—constitute a possible Group of Death, but I believe it will be merely competitive for the second spot and that England will certainly go through.
There is great hope for the US Men’s National Team, who have much improved over the past few months. There really appears to be a team ethos and purpose. We can only hope that it will continue into next summer. Their group draw was certainly tough but fair with Australia, Paraguay, and a playoff team that will most likely be Turkiye.
Given the expansion to 48 teams, the stronger teams will most likely advance to the knockout stages. This includes the home nations Mexico, Canada and the US. With the top four teams in four different brackets, the chance for advancement increases. While it is unlikely that any of the home nations will win the tournament, all of the three should get to the knockout stage, and any or all could reach the quarterfinals.
Unfortunately, with the corruption and brown-nosing we saw at The Draw, real success by the US team could be tainted.
Just kidding?
After the playoffs in March, I’ll do a deep dive into predictions, but sitting here now and given the format, it is hard to pick against Spain, France, England and Argentina in the semis.
And my beloved daughter in law, Stephanie, has secured tickets and hotel room for a World Cup game in Atlanta. Due to the family I was lucky enough to be born into and acquire, I’m the luckiest guy in the world.
Took my first dose of GLP1 under Martha’s supervision last night. We shall see what we shall see. Fat Boy Index: 291.