Wins Above Bubble, or WAB, is a new metric added to the NCAA’s team sheets ahead of last year’s tournament. It attempts to measure how much better or worse a specific team did against its own schedule than what would be expected of a generic bubble-caliber team.
In other words, how many wins did you amass, and how many more or less is that than a bubble team would have?
That approach has multiple benefits. Most importantly, it provides one number to directly compare teams with drastically different strengths of schedule.
For a real-world example: Using the NET rankings to measure opponent quality, a bubble team would be expected to have won 14.09 games so far against Auburn’s wildly difficult schedule. Auburn currently has 15 wins, which puts the Tigers at +0.91 WAB. That same generic bubble team would be expected to accumulate 25.87 wins against Miami (Ohio)’s schedule. The Redhawks are 28-0, so they are at +2.13 WAB. That’s a one-to-one comparison to show that Miami has accomplished more than Auburn, despite a galactic gulf in schedule strength.
Furthermore, WAB makes every game matter. Rather than a microscopic focus on Quadrant 1 wins and Quadrant 3 losses, this all-encompassing metric captures the results of every single game on a team’s schedule. That nuance prevents arbitrary cutoff—like the difference between a home win over No. 30 in the NET (Q1) or No. 31 (Q2)—from skewing our perception.
Flaws remain. WAB does not adjust for injuries/player absences, and it is only as strong as the tool being used to value the teams: the NET itself. But its ability to equalize across all levels of teams makes it as fair a tool as any.
On 3/12 Duke’s WAB was +12, Louisville 4.5, Va. 7.4, UNC 5.5, Clemson 2.8, Miami 2.4, NC State 0.35, according to Bart Tovik.
Jim Root, theathletic.com.