Chip Bremer
The time is nigh for another round of predictions, projections and prognostications around the annual NCAA men’s basketball tournament. This year’s event has its share of favorites, thoroughbreds, underdogs and dark horses, so it’s important to stay on top of all of the madness if you’re into office pools, bracketology, or whatever helps you live vicariously through the greatest postseason event ever created.
Having said that, here’s another take on potential outcomes that just might make you think twice about your picks or even smile.
40 to 1: All ACC teams survive the first round
It’s nice to see the conference rebound with so many at-large bids this year, but not all of these teams are sure-fire bets to get through their first game. In fact, some may be victims of upset-minded Cinderellas in the opening slate.
8 to 1: SEC loses most of its teams in the first weekend
With so many teams in the field, one would think the SEC might dominate the field as it has in the past. But beyond Florida, most of their entries are vulnerable to early exits, and some teams (Alabama, Arkansas) may not even see them coming.
10 to 1: The Big East is eliminated after the first weekend
The conference has certainly fallen on hard times, and the lack of competition makes top-seeded UConn particularly vulnerable as upset fodder.
100 to 1: A #16 seed will beat a #1 seed
Up until Virginia’s collapse in 2018, such an event had never happened in the tournament, and since it’s happened twice now in the past eight years, the odds have come down a bit. However, this year’s tops seeds are even more guarded against an early surprise, making the odds still a bit overwhelming for the underdogs.
12 to 1: The freshman scoring record will be broken
With all of the talented, high-scoring freshmen in this year’s tourney—including Cam Boozer, A.J. Dybantsa and Kingston Flemming to name a few—it’s easy to see at least one of them take a shot at De’Aaron Fox’s 39-point freshman scoring record.
8 to 1: Purdue makes a first-round exit
The once popular preseason pick to win it all, the Boilermakers just haven’t been able to find their stride this season, and this version is starting to look like the 2023 top seed that stumbled out of the gate.
8 to 1: NC State is eliminated in the first round
The Wolfpack was lucky enough to make the field this season after the late-season stumbles. Maybe Will Wade’s next squad will be better prepared for a postseason run.
12 to 1: Louisville shatters the record for most three-point attempts in a game
Between Ryan Conwell, Isaac McKneely and freshman Mikel Brown, the Cards have no shortage of snipers who won’t hesitate to chuck it up from deep at least a dozen times during the game. Since it’s become their formula for winning, it wouldn’t surprise to see them make a record out of it.
10 to 1: UNC is eliminated after the first weekend
The Tar Heels have been resilient following the season-ending injury to star freshman Caleb Wilson, but they haven’t shown the same consistency either. It wouldn’t be surprising to see an early exit during the second round.20 to 1: Duke makes it to the Final Four
Top seeds typically have much better odds of reaching the national semis, but with injuries to starters Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba, the Blue Devils’ lack of depth will be exploited.
8 to 1: Virginia is the last ACC left standing
The Cavaliers were the most consistent team in the conference this season, and with Duke’s injury issues, Ryan Odom’s first team should go far this postseason.
10 to 1: Darryn Peterson finally emerges for Kansas
There’s been a lot of talk about whether this diaper dandy will ever live up to the hype he garnered before the season started, but this tourney will be the stage on which he reminds people why he should be considered the top pick in this year’s NBA draft.
250 to 1: Cam Boozer is held to under 10 points in a game
It hasn’t happened all season, and given Duke’s depth issues, it won’t happen in the foreseeable future.
8 to 1: Jeremy Fears gets ejected for fighting
The hot-headed point guard has been a driver for Michigan State all season, but his temper may get the better of him if the Spartans start to fold.
12 to 1: Miami (of Florida) will go farther than Miami of Ohio
It was impressive to see the RedHawks run the table during the regular season, but the quality of competition has to be a factor at some point—and the Hurricanes have seen more than their fair share this season.
16 to 1: An ACC team wins it all
Again, the conference has some good representatives this year, but injuries have set the ACC’s chances for a title back a bit. It would be interesting to see UVA or Louisville step up and win it, but they just don’t have the firepower to take down the big guns.
6 to 1: A team from the Big 12 will win the title
Arizona and Houston are heavy favorites, and Iowa State, Texas Tech and even Kansas have the potential to make a Final Four run. We might even see an all-Big 12 Final.
5 to 1: Florida goes back-to-back
No team has been hotter than the Gators over the past couple of months. They seem to have regained that swagger many expected at the start of the season, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone to become another repeat title winner.
4 to 1: Michigan wins it all
The Wolverines, behind the coaching of Dusty May and the play of stud forward Yaxel Lendeborg, have emerged as the most consistently powerful team in the country, and with Duke hobbled, they have a clear shot of taking the title back to Ann Arbor.