High Expectations for Duke, Va., Miami, Louisville, UNC
Chip Bremer
Preseason Top 25 lists are always littered with teams that exude potential to earn a national championship, but this year’s list carries a bit of uncertainty for several teams due to the NCAA’s new five-for-five age-based eligibility rules. This may or may not allow several fifth-year seniors the opportunity to play one more year depending on several pending lawsuits–some of which may not be determined until mid-December. Regardless of how it all turns out, another season of college hoops is right around the corner–and here are the top contenders:
1. Florida. The obvious choice for preseason #1, the Gators return four starters (five if you count Denzel Aberdeen, who started at UF two years ago) from last season’s 27-8 team that finished atop the SEC standings and earned a top seed in the NCAA tournament. Preseason POY candidate Thomas Haugh will lead the country’s top frontcourt along with Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu, while point guard Boogie Fland continues his upward trajectory.
2. Duke. The Blue Devils made the most significant gains in the offseason, acquiring top transfer guard Jon Blackwell and international forward Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje to go with the country’s top recruiting class, which includes star guard Deron Rippey. Add that group to returnees Patrick Ngongba, Dame Sarr, Caleb Foster and Cayden Boozer, and you have one of the deepest teams in the nation.
3. Illinois. The international connection in Champaign continues to yield dividends as Estonian Providence transfer Stefan Vaaks joins returnees Andrej Stojakovic, David Mirkovic and Tomislav Ivisic from last year’s 28-9 Final Four squad. Freshman combo guard Quentin Coleman should also have significant impact, potentially filling the Keaton Wagner role that made the Illini so formidable last season.
4. Texas. In his second season in Austin, Sean Miller has compiled a deep and talented roster that will make some serious noise. Led by Colorado transfer Isaiah Johnson, the Longhorns feature one of the country’s best returning centers in Matas Vokietaitis, as well as high-energy transfers David Punch (TCU) and Elyjah Freeman (Auburn) and former #1 2027 prospect Marcus Spears, Jr. The injury to Saint Mary’s transfer Mikey Lewis is a setback, but it will open more opportunities for the other star freshmen Austin Goosby and Bo Ogden.
5. UConn. Despite the loss of returning guard Solo Ball, the Huskies have enough firepower to once again sweep through the Big East and contend for a national title. Danny Hurley returns a starting backcourt of Silas Demary and sharpshooter Braylon Mullins but also adds some talented frontcourt transfers in Nik Khamenia (Duke) and Na’jai Hines (Seton Hall). Talented freshmen Colben Landrew and Junior County will also have an immediate impact.
6. Tennessee. No program did as much to build its backcourt scoring than the Volunteers. Terrence Hill Jr. (VCU), Dai Dai Ames (California), Tyler Lundblade (Belmont) and Juke Harris (Wake Forest) will create havoc for opposing defenses, while former McDonald’s All-American Jalen Haralson (Notre Dame transfer) will help anchor the front line. The depth at center is concerning, but if Vanderbilt transfer Jalen Washington secures eligibility, the Vols should be a Final Four contender.
7. Michigan State. Tom Izzo has another one of those sneaky-good teams that seem to do so well when March comes around. Led by All-American point guard Jeremy Fears, the team features a unique group of skilled forwards in Coen Carr, Cam Ward, Jordan Scott and former Florida Atlantic transfer Kaleb Glenn who can do just about everything. The backcourt will be bolstered by a pair of talented freshmen in Jasiah Jervis and Carlos Medlock Jr., and 7-2 Charlotte transfer Anton Bonke will provide the muscle down low.
8. Arizona. The Wildcats will lean heavily on multi-dimensional forward Ivan Kharchenkov and skilled big man Motiejus Krivas, while its backcourt will feature a mix of underrated transfers in Derek Dixon (North Carolina) and JJ Mandaquit (Washington) and blue-chip freshmen in Caleb Holt and Cameron Holmes. If Clemson transfer RJ Godfrey can secure eligibility, he should slide right into the power forward spot next to Krivas, making the Wildcats even more dangerous.
9. Arkansas. Jon Calipari’s ability to recruit at the highest level will be on full display after reeling in another top recruiting class, which features five-star freshmen Jordan Smith, JaShawn Andrews, Abdou Toure and Miikka Muurinen, as well as transfers Jeremiah Wilkinson (Georgia and Cooper Bowser (Furman). Throw in returning starter Billy Richmond on the perimeter, and Calipari has another Razorback squat that can compete for a Final Four berth.
10. Michigan. After losing their entire frontcourt to the NBA lottery, the Wolverines are reloading with another group of low-post transfers in Moustapha Thiam (Cincinnati), J.P. Estrella (Tennessee), and Jalen Reed (LSU). They likely won’t match the output of their predecessors, but with Final Four Most Outstanding Player Elliot Cadeau returning, along with high-level scorer Trey McKenney,
they won’t need to. The injury to star freshman Brandon McCoy was devastating, but it opens the door for another freshman, 6-9 forward Quinn Costello, to really shine.
11. Virginia. The most experienced team on this list, the Cavaliers return four starters in forward Thijs de Ridder, center Johann Grunloh and guards Sam Lewis and Chance Mallory from a team that almost won the ACC championship. To plug the roster holes, Ryan Odom added international prospect Nolan Adekunle and sharp-shooting transfers Christian Harmon and Jurian Dixon. This team won’t blow anyone away, but they will win a lot of games.
12. Louisville. Pat Kelsey had some major roster spots to fill, so he spent a ton of money in the transfer portal, reeling in the likes of Flory Bidunga (Kansas) Jackson Shelstad (Oregon), Alvaro Folgueiras (Iowa), Karter Knox (Arkansas), De’Shayne Montgomery (Dayton), and Gabe Dynes (USC) to join returnee Adrian Wooley on the depth chart. He also added talented legacy freshman Obinna Ekezie Jr., who should shore up the frontcourt. UNC transfer Seth Trimble might also contribute if he secures eligibility, but the Cards will be solid regardless.
13. Houston. The Cougars lost some NBA-ready talent from last season, and Kelvin Sampson did his best to reload with high-impact transfers in double-double machine Delrecco Gillespie (Kent State), multifaceted scorer Corey Hadnot (Purdue-FW), and lead guard Dedan Thomas (LSU). Last year’s role players like JoJo Tugler, Mercy Miller and Chase McCarty will need to step up and give star freshmen Arafan Diane and Ikenna Alozie time to develop.
14. Gonzaga. What’s a top 25 without the Zags? Expectations are still high in Spokane with potential All-Americans Braden Huff and Davis Fogle returning and former McDonald’s All-American Isiah Harwell transferring in from Houston. This team could get even better if fifth-year transfers Xaivian Lee (Florida) and Chauncey Wiggins (Florida State) are ruled eligible. Former Arizona State center Massamba Diop may not be what fans are hoping for, but Spanish big man Izan Almansa will likely pass him on the depth chart.
15. USC. It’s impossible to leave out the Trojans when you add one of the country’s top scorers in Rodney Rice (20.3 ppg) to the vast frontcourt riches at their disposal. Not only do they return one of the Big Ten’s top big men in Jacob Cofie, but they also bring in 7-foot UConn transfer Eric Reibe and three of the country’s top freshman centers in Christian Collins, Adonis Ratliff and Darius Ratliff. That’s not even including returning wing Alijah Arenas and Georgetown transfer KJ Lewis—both of whom averaged over 14 ppg a year ago.
16. Alabama. With Aiden Holloway’s legal troubles now behind him, the Crimson Tide will be able to rely on the point guard to run the team with weapons like projected NBA draft pick Amari Allen, transfers Drew Fielder (Boise State) and Brandon Garrison (Kentucky), and a host of highly-ranked freshmen, including McDonald’s All-American Jaxon Richardson. Forward London Jemison might be a surprise breakout candidate.
17. Miami. Now in his second year at the helm, Jai Lucas has the Hurricanes back among the country’s elite programs. Transfers Acaden Lewis (Villanova) and Somto Cyril (Georgia) will shore up the point and center positions, respectively. Physical, high-scoring wing Shelton Henderson is primed for a breakout campaign. Freshman forward Caleb Gaskins and Robert Morris transfer DeSean Goode will solidify the frontline. And if fifth-year forward Malik Reneau becomes eligible after leading the Canes in scoring a season ago, this team could have Top 10 potential.
18. Kansas. Bill Self will be sweating it out through December since the Jayhawks’ success may hinge on the eligibility of former starters Melvin Council Jr. and Tre White, both of whom are waiting to secure their five-for-five eligibility. In the meantime, he will rely heavily on freshman sensation Tyran Stokes, who is expected to be the #1 overall pick in the 2027 NBA Draft. Stokes can do just about everything, and he will elevate those around him, including transfers Leroy Blyden Jr. (Toledo) and Keanu Dawes (Utah) and fellow freshmen Taylon Kinney, Davion Atkins, and surprise sharpshooter Luke Barnett.
19. St. John’s. Rick Pitino is another who will be waiting for court decisions to secure eligibility for key players. In his case, three potential starters: Quinn Ellis, Babacar Sane and Keyshawn Hall. Regardless the Red Storm still have electric guard Ian Jackson and center Ruben Prey returning, and Pitino is bringing in one of the most dynamic scorers in the portal in Baylor’s Tounde Yessoufou. If the other three are eligible, St. Johns’ could challenge UConn for Big East supremacy.
20. UCLA. With three returning starters in Trent Perry, Eric Dailey and Xavier Booker, UCLA already has a leg up on its Big Ten competitors. But when you add in transfers like point guard Jaylen Petty (Texas Tech), Filip Jovic (Auburn) and Sergej Macura (Mississippi State), and then throw in one of the most talented international imports in forward Nikola Kusturica, Mick Cronin has the makings of something special.
21. Kentucky. Mark Pope has had some early struggles as the Wildcats head coach after taking the reins from John Calipari in 2024, but thanks to the transfer portal, he’s managed to stitch together a competitive roster. Point guard Zoom Diallo (Washington) and wing Alex Wilkins (Furman) will elevate this team, while prized forward Milan Momcilovic (Iowa State) will provide the perimeter firepower fans in Lexington have been craving. With center Malachi Moreno returning, it won’t matter who wins the power forward spot.
22. Vanderbilt. Perhaps the most welcomed sight in all of college hoops will be the return of All-American guard Tyler Tanner, who will lead the Commodores to another successful season. Bolstered by transfers Ace Glass (Washington State), Bangot Dak (Colorado), Berke Buyuktuncel (Nebraska), T.O. Barrett (Missouri) and Sebastian Williams-Adams (Auburn), along with freshman Gabe Nesmith and returnee Chandler Bing (or Mrs. Chanandler Bong, IYKYK), there’s no reason to suspect a letdown in Nashville.
23. Texas Tech. Yet another team hoping for some positive five-for-five eligibility rulings, the Red Raiders are also waiting for the return of star big man JT Topin from injury. The rest of the roster should be set with the additions of transfers Cruz Davis (Hofstra) and Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn (UNLV) and top recruit Dakari Spear. But if Toppin comes back to form and Donovan Atwell, Darrion Williams and Jamichael Stillwell all secure eligibility, this team has Final Four potential.
24. Indiana. Another second year coach with significant promise, Darian DeVries has demonstrated mastery of the transfer portal by bringing in an entirely new roster with Marcus Buron (Notre Dame), Bryce Lindsay (Villanova), Aiden Sherrell (Alabama), Samet Yigitoglu (SMU), Jaeden Mustaf (Georgia Tech), and Darren Harris (Duke). And if you think that’s impressive, wait until you see the recruits he’s bringing in next year.
25. UNC. The Michael Malone era is now officially underway, and like several other new coaches, he’s built his first roster from high-profile newcomers. Transfers Terrence Brown (Utah), Neo Avdalas (Virginia Tech) and Matt Able (NC State) will flesh out the backcourt, while European imports Sayon Keita and Alex Samodurov will pair nicely with returnee Jarin Stevenson to solidify the frontcourt. The brilliance of Brown, the savvy of Avdalas, and the physicality of Keita are what gives the Heels the final spot in this countdown.
The next five:
26. Missouri.
27. Iowa State.
28. BYU.
29. Nebraska.
30. Villanova.