Chip Bremer
Now that the in-conference schedule has started for ACC teams, it’s time to move beyond the pre-season speculation and focus on some of the early trends that will affect where these teams stand come March. Here’s a few early observations:
Duke is still the one to beat.
Just when you think there might be a chink in the Blue Devils’ collective armor, they seem to find a way of quickly stifling any aspirations of upset-minded teams. Cam Boozer is every bit the workhorse he was expected to be—leading the team in virtually every statistical category, and the rest of his teammates are starting to carve out their own roles around what he already does.
The three-guard set of Caleb Foster, Isaiah Evans and Cayden Boozer has helped minimize turnovers and streamline the offense. As long as the frontcourt rotation remains consistent and fellow freshmen Nikolas Khamenia and Dame Sarr continue to develop alongside big Boozer, Duke will be tough to dethrone as ACC champions.
Race for POY is already narrowing. Speaking of Cam Boozer, what was previously a three-horse race between him, Louisville’s Mikel Brown, and UNC’s Caleb Wilson is currently narrowing down to just the Duke freshman. Brown has been injured for a significant amount of time, and Wilson is still limited with his opportunities due to the Heels’ backcourt inconsistencies.
There’s plenty of time for others to emerge, such as SMU’s Boopie Miller, who is having an amazing season, and Louisville’s Ryan Conwell, who is stepping up in Brown’s absence. But Boozer appears to have a tight grip on that honor right now, as he still leads the ACC in points per game, is top five in rebounds, and is the key facilitator for the best team in the conference.
Road wins remain at a premium.
One of the key determinants for the ACC championship is still the amount of wins a team can steal on the road. A winning road record is always a formula for winning the conference, and as interconference competition has intensified this year, it will be even more difficult to come away with quality road wins. With all the competition it faced at neutral events in the preseason, Duke further demonstrated its proficiency in this area with a big comeback win in Louisville.
Conversely, if a team can’t seem to hold its home court, they likely will be relegated to the ACC basement, as Boston College, Pittsburgh and Florida State are already noticing.
West Coast teams are surprising.
Ever since they joined the conference a year ago, expectations for California and Stanford have been minimal and their adjustment period was expected to be significant. However, with the emergence of superstar freshman Ebuka Okorie, the Cardinal have turned heads—especially withthe win over a ranked Louisville team (even though Brown’s injury probably helped).
On the other hand, Cal—despite its weak schedule—also has been a revelation, as the trio of Dai Dai Ames, Justin Pippen and Chris Bell continues to fill up the stat sheet every time they take the floor. Maybe the addition of these teams wasn’t such a bad move after all.
Middle of the field is still wide open.
Behind Duke, the next tier within the conference is led by SMU, UNC, Virginia, and Louisville (when Brown returns from injury). However, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Syracuse, NC State, Miami, and the aforementioned west coast teams all have a chance to reach that tier and even challenge Duke for the conference lead. In all likelihood, this means the ACC should at least double their NCAA bids from a year ago and ensure its place as the most competitive conference in the country.