Odds of March

Chip Bremer

There’s only so much Bracketology you can watch before you begin to wonder, “is this all there is?” Surely there’s a hidden formula somewhere beyond Joe Lunardi’s prognostications that can secure victory in the traditional office pool. Maybe you should consider factors such as the air speed velocity of a basketball at different elevations or a team’s pregame dietary fiber intake. Maybe you’re just overthinking it. Maybe it’s all in the numbers. Then again, maybe you haven’t considered… the Odds of March!

25 to 1:
Duke suffers an early exit

Typically, this would be somewhat of a sure thing with the Blue Devils’ overreliance on freshmen, but the way this team has evolved beyond just being Cooper Flagg’s supporting cast says otherwise.

50 to 1:
Clemson sneaks into the Final Four

As usual, nobody is talking about the Tigers—and given that they’re the second-best team in a weak ACC, maybe there’s a reason for that.

10 to 1:
All ACC teams but Duke are eliminated after the first weekend

Remember that SEC-ACC Challenge early in the season? Yeah, there’s a reason Duke was the only conference team to remain relevant all year.

8 to 1:
A Louisville run to the Sweet 16 causes sales of Chucky dolls to skyrocket

All-everything guard Chucky Hepburn has ignited the Cards fan base, and his likeness to the Child’s Play serial killer is going to become more evident the more he slices through the competition.

15 to 1:
There will be an all-SEC Final Four

Ordinarily, the odds on something like this would be astronomical, but with all the SEC teams in the tournament—and most of them with high seeds—it’s certainly not a stretch.

6 to 1:
Rick Pitino won’t blow a gasket when St. John’s exits in the first round

Age has mellowed the Rickster, and even an eventual upset—simply because the John­nies haven’t really been challenged in a wa­tered-down Big East—won’t cause the expected meltdown.

6 to 1:
Kentucky’s Kory Brea will set a record for most consecutive three-pointers

The kid is automatic from beyond the arc, and the Wildcats will need every bit of his perimeter prowess to make it past the first weekend—so yeah, he’s got the green light.

12 to 1:
Johni Broome will foul out as Auburn gets bumped in the first weekend

The Tigers have always had the depth to weather an excessive number of personal fouls, but when Broome has to ride the bench late, they are susceptible to the Cinderella syndrome.

8 to 1:
Tennessee will win a tournament game without scoring over 50 points

They’ve played some ugly games this season, and with their stifling defense, they don’t need to win pretty.

10 to 1:
St. Mary’s replaces Gonzaga as the West Coast team everyone should fear

That ugly loss in the WCC title game should serve as a wake-up call for the Gaels, and they’ll be wanting to prove their 28-5 record was no fluke.

60 to 1:
Kansas finally lives up to their preseason ranking

Hunter Dickinson may go down as one of the most overrated centers in Jayhawks history, and the fact they still struggle from beyond the arc should signal an early exit for the preseason #1.

8 to 1:
Not one Big 12 team will make the Final Four

There are reasons to like teams like Houston and Iowa State, but after playing an entire postseason tournament on that eyesore of a floor, Big 12 teams might be suffering from posttraumatic epilepsy.

2 to 1:
Talking heads will still argue to expand NCAA tourney field

No matter how much TV ratings increase, you know there will be plenty of expert opinions on why the NCAA should reward mediocrity.

8 to 1:
Drake will make the Sweet 16

Love or hate the Drake, Ben McCollum knows how to win games, and Bennett Stirtz is a stud—30-3 is nothing to sneeze at.

6 to 1:
McNeese State will pull off an upset or two

Oh yeah, Will Wade also knows a thing or two about defeating Goliath—and they’ve gone toe-to-toe with the SEC’s best.

5 to 1:
An SEC team wins it all

See earlier entry on how many SEC teams are in the bloody tournament.

10 to 1:
A Pac-12 team will win it all

Ha! Made you look…

10000 to 1:
Cooper Flagg returns for his sophomore season

Of course, it would be the worst business decision in the history of the sport, but this is one deal no amount of NIL money can scuttle.